Actually, everything is going great for the US Democrats, you should at least mean. The president has sparked a protest storm in his own party with the Syria policy. In the investigation into a possible impeachment, the testimonies and evidence against Trump pile up. Meanwhile, well over half of Americans say in polls that Congress should initiate impeachment proceedings against the president.
Nevertheless, there is reason to be nervous about the opposition.
Because a new survey of the "New York Times" in collaboration with the Siena College draws a slightly different picture of the situation. Thus, the election 2020 is far from over – and Trump may be better off than is generally assumed.
It's about six "Battleground States"
Nate Cohn's demoscopy experts have looked more closely at six states likely to be particularly important in the upcoming election. It's exactly those so-called Battleground States where Donald Trump won the 2016 election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina. The question was about the preferences for the presidential election 2020.
According to the poll, Trump is down by only two percentage points on average for registered voters in direct comparison with his potential Democratic challenger Joe Biden. If Trump would compete against Elizabeth Warren, he would be even ahead of these voters by an average of two percentage points. In direct comparison with the third potential candidate of the Democrats, Bernie Sanders, there would be a stalemate.
From the perspective of the Democrats, the result is sobering. It confirms a fear that has been going on for some time among democratic strategists. Although Trump performs poorly in national polls and seldom gets more than 40 percent approval, he is well-supported by the voters in those states that could eventually decide.
In the key states, it is primarily white members of the working class without a college degree who continue to hold Trump firmly. According to the poll, 90 percent of 2016 Trump supporters in the Battleground States stated that they are satisfied with Trump's work as President to this day.
Extremely short survey values
The survey is particularly bitter for Elizabeth Warren, who has seen a considerable boom in the field of Democratic challengers in recent weeks. Now it turns out that she may be well received by her own party base, but has a problem overall in key states: she is, for example, in Michigan six percentage points behind Trump, in Florida she is four points in the negative and in North Carolina three. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin she is on a par with Trump, only in Arizona she creates a margin of two percentage points.
Charlie Neibergall / AP
Elizabeth Warren has not been able to beat Donald Trump in highly competitive countries so far
But for Joe Biden, the matter is far from being as clear as he and his followers might hope. So Biden in Michigan is just the same with Trump, in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin he has a lead of only three percentage points and in Florida there are even only two points. These survey results are so close that they are within the usual fault tolerance of such surveys.
Of course everything can change again. It's almost a year to go until the election. It is also not sure if Trump will be removed from office prematurely via Impeachment. But for the Democrats, the survey is an alarm sign. Once again, even if they can benefit from the outrage of voters in their liberal strongholds such as New York or California and Trump bring great results, that might not be enough in the end, so that Trump's term can be safely completed in the coming year ,
The peculiarity of the US election system
As a reminder, in the US electoral system, not necessarily the one who has the most votes wins the presidency, but it is important to conquer as many individual states as possible in order to achieve a majority in the so-called Electoral College. The panel ultimately determines the president; It is composed of 538 delegates from the 50 states and Washington DC, according to a specific distribution key.
So Donald Trump could become president in 2016, although he had a total of over three million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton. He won in major states such as Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the majority and thus also received their votes in the election committee.
Repeats for the democrats the trauma of 2016?
One thing is certain: for a clear victory, the Democratic candidate would have to conquer all the states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and would probably need three of the six Battleground countries. Only then would the Democrats reach the magical majority of 270 votes in the Electoral College.
Manuel Balce Ceneta / AP
Donald Trump can count on his tribal voters to stay with him
Because Trump is so unpopular overall, the Democrats continue to believe that they have a clear chance of success. No matter who becomes a candidate, the most important and obvious goal of the party is likely to regain its three old strongholds in the north, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. The Democrats insist that in the end, there are enough bill-to-vote voters to make the cross.
Other Democratic target areas are North Carolina, Arizona and Florida – and perhaps even the Republican strongholds of Georgia and Texas. The Democrats are speculating that in these southern states the influx of many young professionals with good education and the growing number of immigrants from South and Central America are changing the electorate in their favor.
So far, however, this calculation has not yet worked out: in Florida, Republicans won both the Senate and the governor elections in the Midterm elections last year, in Georgia they were successful in the governing election and the Republican Ted Cruz was able to sit in his Senate seat in Texas Defend the Democrat Beto O'Rourke.
Trump also has a plan B
In addition, Trump is not exactly idle in terms of campaign preparation. His tough attacks on the Democrats are evidently designed to mobilize his electorate in the embattled states. In addition, his campaign team is pumping millions of dollars into Facebook and TV advertising aimed at targeting voters in these regions.
In addition, Trump could try to conquer more states from the Democrats. Among other things, he wants to win New Mexico. He also took a look at Minnesota. In the 2016 election, he was defeated Hillary Clinton here just barely missing him just over 50,000 votes.